Hurricane Warning issued for Philadelphia

Just in: The National Weather Service has issued a Hurricane Warning for the city of Philadelphia. New York City has a Hurricane Watch, meaning hurricane conditions are not yet imminent, but maybe in the coming day or so.

This afternoon, Irene has weakened ever so slightly. However, it will still bring about extensive, region-wide power outages, and potentially significant damage to the high-rise downtown areas of Philadelphia and New York City. Storm surge will also be significant in the Delaware Bay, Delaware River (Philadelphia), Chesapeake Bay, New York harbor, and Long Island sound.

Atlantic Hurricane Irene Heads Toward Florida

Hurricane Irene, the first of the 2011 Atlantic season, picked up strength as it moved toward the southeastern Bahamas on a path that could take it to Florida by week’s end, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.
Irene, with maximum winds of 80 miles (129 kilometers) per hour, was about 90 miles west-northwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico, as of 9 a.m. East Coast time and is moving west-northwest at 14 mph, according to an advisory by the Miami-based hurricane center.
“We definitely think it’ll make landfall in the southeastern part of the U.S.,” said Kristina Pydynowski, a meteorologist with State College, Pennsylvania-based AccuWeather Inc.
Irene may even reach Category 3 strength with sustained winds of at least 111 mph, she said. The NHC website says a storm of this magnitude would cause “devastating damage” with a “high risk of injury or death.”
The NHC expects the hurricane to pass over Puerto Rico this morning and reach the north coast of the Dominican Republic later today. Irene will veer northward over the next few days, bringing it across the Bahamas by Aug. 25 and the east coast of Florida the next day, they forecast.
“If you’re in south Florida, now is the time to get prepared,” the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency said on its website.
Orange Crop
Florida’s orange crop is vulnerable to tropical weather if the area is exposed to strong winds. Orange-juice prices have climbed 20 percent from a year earlier as frost and dry weather hurt the Florida crop. Futures for November delivery closed at $1.6415 a pound on ICE Futures U.S. in New York last week.
“Its a bit of a wait-and-see at this point in time. We need to get a couple days nearer to see what the damage is going to be” to the orange crop, Jim Dale, senior risk meteorologist at British Weather Services at High Wycombe, England, said by phone.
A hurricane warning in Puerto Rico has been changed to a tropical storm warning. Hurricane warnings continue for the north coast of the Dominican Republic, while watches are in force for the north coast of Haiti and the Central Bahamas. Warnings are issued for areas where hurricane-force winds are expected in the coming 36 hours and a watch is issued when there is a possibility of hurricane-force winds in the coming 48 hours.
Storm Winds
Hurricane-force winds extend outward for 15 miles from Irene’s core, and tropical-storm-force winds extend for 150 miles, mostly to the northwest and northeast of the core, the center said in its advisory.
The storm may drop 5 to 10 inches (13 to 26 centimeters) of rain across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos, with as much as 20 inches in some areas and “life- threatening flash floods,” the hurricane center said. A storm surge may lift water levels by as much as 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of the Dominican Republic, it said.
Hovensa LLC’s St. Croix refinery is located on the U.S. Virgin Islands, where a tropical storm warning is in effect. The refinery has a capacity of 525,000 barrels a day.
Gulf Unlikely
The storm probably won’t enter the Gulf of Mexico, home to 31 percent of U.S. oil output and 7 percent of natural gas.
“It looks like most of the models are looking somewhere along the east coast from Florida up to North Carolina,” said Travis Hartman, meteorologist with MDA EarthSat Weather in Gaithersburg, Maryland. “As far as energy purposes it looks like the Gulf is going to get away from this one. The Gulf is probably pretty safe right now.”
A storm becomes a hurricane when winds hit 74 mph. The last hurricane to hit the U.S. was Ike in 2008, which was a Category 2 storm on the five-step Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale when it went ashore near Galveston, Texas. The last major hurricane to hit the U.S. was in 2005, according to the hurricane center.
Farther to the west, Tropical Depression Harvey is quickly weakening over southern Mexico and is expected to dissipate by the end of the day, the hurricane center said.

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Hurricane Irene sparks more cruise itinerary changes

(Updated Aug. 23, 5:30 p.m. EDT) Hurricane Irene, the ninth named storm and first hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic season, is hammering the islands of Turks and Caicos as it surges for the Bahamas. Weather conditions have forced lines to alter itineraries for some 15 cruise ships, and Royal Caribbean is preparing to secure and evacuate Cocacay, its private Bahamian island resort.
The National Hurricane Center's 5 p.m. EDT advisory places Irene some 50 miles south-southwest of the popular cruise port of Grand Turk. Maximum sustained winds have weakened slightly to 90 miles per hour, but the storm is expected to intensify into a major hurricane by Wednesday night or Thursday.
Irene has been tracing a path through the Caribbean since forming Saturday. According to Reuters, 800,000 people in Puerto Rico -- half of the island's electricity customers -- were left without power when the storm brushed the island's east coast, felling trees, swelling rivers over their banks and flooding some roads. President Obama has declared a state of emergency, which releases federal aid to help with local response efforts. Early Tuesday, Irene skirted the north coast of the Dominican Republic, bringing heavy winds, rain and surging seas.
Cruise Ship Itinerary Changes
Norwegian Cruise Line
Norwegian Jewel, which is in the midst of a week-long Bahamas and Florida cruise, arrived in Great Stirrup Cay Tuesday (NCL's private Bahamian island) as originally planned. Instead of calling on Nassau Wednesday, Jewel will spend the day at sea, then head north en route to its New York homeport. It'll reach N.Y.C. on Saturday as scheduled.
Norwegian Sky is in Nassau Tuesday as scheduled. The ship will cancel its Wednesday call in Great Stirrup Cay and spend the day at sea instead. Depending on the path of the storm, the ship may also have to cancel its call in Freeport on Thursday. Sky completes its four-night cruise on Friday in Miami.
Royal Caribbean
Monarch of the Seas will not call on Cococay, the line's private Bahamian island, Tuesday. The ship, which left Port Canaveral Monday on a four-night Bahamas cruise, is in Nassau today and will spend the next two days at sea before returning to Port Canaveral Friday.
Majesty of the Seas will not be able to call on CocoCay Wednesday. Instead, the ship is sailing directly to Key West, where it will arrive at 4 p.m. on Wednesday and stay overnight until 6 p.m. on Thursday. Majesty is scheduled to conclude its four-night Bahamas and Florida cruise in Miami on Friday.
Royal Caribbean reversed the itinerary for Oasis of the Seas, which left Fort Lauderdale on Saturday for a week-long Western Caribbean cruise. The ship visited Cozumel on Monday; is spending Tuesday at sea; calling on Falmouth, Jamaica on Wednesday; and visiting Labadee, the line's private peninsula in Haiti, on Thursday. Oasis will spend Friday at sea before returning to Fort Lauderdale on Saturday as scheduled.
Freedom of the Seas, which left Sunday from Port Canaveral on a week-long Western Caribbean cruise, is sailing a reversed itinerary. The ship is now calling on Cozumel (Tuesday), Grand Cayman (Wednesday), Falmouth, Jamaica (Thursday) and Labadee (Friday).
Oasis' sister ship, Allure of the Seas, is visiting all the ports originally scheduled on its week-long Caribbean cruise, but in a slightly different order. The ship will visit Nassau, Bahamas on Saturday (August 27) instead of Monday (August 22). Visits to St. Thomas (Wednesday) and St. Maarten (Thursday) will take place as planned.
Royal Caribbean has scrambled the order for Serenade of the Seas' seven-night Southern Caribbean cruise, which left from San Juan, Puerto Rico, on Sunday. The ship is now visiting Aruba (Tuesday), Curacao (Wednesday), St. Kitts (Friday) and St. Thomas (Saturday).
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Carnival Cruise Lines
Carnival Pride, which left Baltimore on Sunday for a week-long Bahamas and Florida cruise, will sail a revised route. The ship will now visit Port Canaveral (Tuesday, instead of Wednesday) and Freeport (Wednesday), after which the line will determine the remainder of the itinerary based on Irene's projected path.
Carnival Triumph, which sailed from New Orleans on Saturday for a week-long Bahamas and Florida cruise, is swapping its Bahamas calls for visits to Western Caribbean ports. The new route includes stops in Key West (Tuesday, as planned), Cozumel (Wednesday) and Progreso (Thursday).
Carnival Destiny, which departed Miami on Monday for a five-night cruise to Grand Turk, Half Moon Cay and Nassau, will instead visit Key West (Tuesday), Cozumel (Wednesday) and Costa Maya (Thursday).
Carnival Conquest, which left Galveston on Sunday for a week-long Bahamas and Florida cruise, will now sail a Western Caribbean itinerary. The new route calls for visits to Costa Maya (Wednesday), Cozumel (Thursday) and Progreso (Friday).
Carnival Victory had to cancel Monday's call at St. Thomas and is proceeding to Barbados for its scheduled call on Wednesday. Spokesman Vance Gulliksen said the line is still evaluating the remainder of the itinerary. Victory is on a seven-night cruise from San Juan.
Carnival Liberty, in the midst of a seven-night Eastern Caribbean cruise from Miami, stopped in Grand Turk Monday instead of spending the day at sea as originally planned. The line is evaluating the remainder of the itinerary.
Carnival Miracle, which embarked from New York Thursday on an eight-night Eastern Caribbean cruise, is sailing an altered itinerary. Instead of visiting San Juan, St. Thomas and Grand Turk, the ship called on Grand Turk Monday and is visiting Half Moon Cay Tuesday.
Disney Cruise Line
Disney Cruise Line likewise has no changes at this time for its one Bahamas-based ship, Disney Dream.
Weather Outlook: Possible Affected Ships and Ports
The core of the storm will move near or over the southeastern and central Bahamas Tuesday night and Wednesday, and near or over the northwestern Bahamas, where the cruise ports of Freeport and Nassau are situated, by Thursday. A hurricane warning is in effect for the Turks and Caicos, and all of the Bahamas.
The current forecast shows the center of Irene making landfall Saturday afternoon somewhere near the northeast part of North Carolina. Meteorologists expect Irene's impact to be widespread along the East Coast. The last time a hurricane made landfall in the U.S. was in 2008, when Ike's 100 mph winds slammed into Texas, severely damaging the Gulf Coast, including the popular embarkation port of Galveston.


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